De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) heeft donderdag 8 september het belangrijkste rentetarief op 0% gehouden. Uit de toelichting van Mario Draghi, de president, kwam weinig sprankelends en boeiends. En dat is weer fascinerend te noemen. Wat vinden een aantal beleggingsexperts van wat er gezegd is of juist niet gezegd is?
Timothy Graf, Head of Macro Strategy bij State Street Global Markets EMEA bij State Street Global Advisors:
“Het lijkt erop dat de verdere verslechtering van inflatie- en conjunctuurcijfers nog steeds onvoldoende is om de ECB aan te sporen verdere verruimende maatregelen te nemen. Hoewel het doelbewust uitblijven van actie vandaag op zichzelf geen al te grote verrassing is, verwachtten we wel signalen die de financiële markten zouden voorbereiden op verdere verruiming later dit jaar. Nu de inflatie en de inflatieverwachtingen ruim onder het doel van de ECB blijven, lijkt het onwaarschijnlijk dat deze terughoudendheid nog lang zal duren.”
Regina Borromeo, Portfolio Manager bij Brandywine Global:
“It is not surprising that the ECB did not cut rates further due to the unclear risk/reward of having more negative rates. However, the ECB has tasked committees to evaluate stimulus options, which is laying the groundwork for a December policy move if necessary. Financial share prices have rallied from lows, but concerns over profitability and NPLs continue and will be watched by policy makers.”
“A key technical driver of credit markets this summer has been the corporate purchase program of the ECB and soon to be implemented by the Bank of England (BoE). The ECB has just passed the 1 trillion euro mark in sovereign bond purchases and the new Corporate Purchase Program has already reached close to 20 billion euro since the summer. ECB corporate buying has driven average investment grade spreads to lows and corporates are issuing bonds at negative yields.”
“Ironically, all this liquidity from the ECB is not helping trading liquidity measured by the bid-ask spreads in euro credit and in euro high yield. Throughout this year, bid-ask spreads have continued to increase making transaction costs higher for investors. We see better value in higher yielding spread product in the dollar and emerging markets.”
Anthony Doyle, directeur Vastrentende Waarden voor particuliere beleggers bij M&G:
“After a relatively quiet summer, the ECB left its main interest rate on hold at 0%. In addition, the ECB decided against extending the duration of its quantitative easing programme. The announcement has come as a slight surprise to the market, as many had expected the ECB to an announce an extension to its asset purchase programme beyond the current soft-end date of March 2017.”
“From a macro perspective, European economic data has remained resilient following the UK’s decision to leave the EU. Both growth and inflation have been in-line with ECB forecasts. Consequently, the ECB Governing Council probably feels that there is plenty of time to assess incoming economic data and the impact of its quantitative easing programme.”
“However, despite taking some comfort from the current resilience of the European economy, we believe the ECB will look to expand its asset purchase programme before the end of 2016. With an annual inflation reading of only 0.2% in August, the European economy remains dangerously close to entering into a deflationary environment.”
“Indeed, the market remains sceptical that Eurozone inflation will return to the ECB’s target by the end of its forecast horizon. On the growth front, the UK’s decision to trigger Article 50 will act as a headwind to economic growth, potentially denting business and consumer confidence in the short term. In order to support the Euro area economy, the ECB will be forced to take an even easier stance on monetary policy.”
Fortunately, there are a number of actions the ECB can take including extending and expanding the duration of asset purchases, changing the terms of the asset purchase programme to prevent any scarcity issues, and cutting interest rates into negative territory. In our opinion, further stimulus is likely to be only a matter of time.”
Patrick O’Donnell, beleggingsstrateeg bij Aberdeen:
“There’s a whiff of complacency about today. There’s been no changes to policy. Data since the last forecast round had been OK but the outlook for inflation and the known political risks coming up suggest that the ECB should be being a bit more proactive.”
“The lack of urgency will probably mean that financial assets will stay under pressure and the currency will continue to be squeezed. That will make the ECB’s job even more difficult than if they had extended the PSPP, as the market expects, by year-end. Their next move will probably be to extend the Public Sector Purchase Programme in December.”
