Veel beleggers hoopten dat Hillary Clinton zou winnen, maar het heeft anders uitgepakt. Donald Trump wordt de 45e president van de Verenigde Staten. Alle financiële markten reageerden woensdagochtend Nederlandse tijd negatief op de uitkomst van de verbeten strijd tussen Clinton en Trump tijdens de Amerikaanse presidentsverkiezing. Nou wordt het zien of de beleggers de grote verliezers worden. The Asset zet reacties uit de beleggerswereld op een rijtje.
Giordano Lombardo ,Chief Executive Officer en Group Chief Investment Officer van Pioneer:
“While the US election outcome is a surprise, it is by no means a black swan event. Markets had been strangely complacent leading up to the election, which was highly reminiscent of the pre-Brexit build-up.”
Quentin Fitzsimmons, portfoliomanager bij T. Rowe Price:
“The world’s only superpower is seeing a big change. That is very concerning, and it could raise volatility. The initial reaction to Brexit was extremely bumpy, but then things calmed down, at least for a while. Similarly, with a Trump presidency, it may be that investors are headed for a prolonged period of shock management. The institutional checks and balances on the US president, the president is not all powerful, may mean that global investors ultimately decide to keep their heads down, not overreact, and try to ride out the next four years.”
“Apprehension over his protectionist agenda could lead to reduced global growth expectations, because the United States could end up with an adverse mix of slower growth and marginally higher inflation. Bond markets globally are likely to see upward pressure on yields over the long term, a steepening of the yield curve. US protectionism would be very disruptive to investment flows and planning. We also should be really concerned about the risks to emerging markets and how they will behave, starting with Mexico.”
“When faced with volatility, central banks tend to kick the ball further into long grass, so they may end and maybe deepen their easing cycles. The Fed’s credibility is going to be under pressure, and that is an international story, not just a national story.”
Keith Wade, hoofdeconoom van Schroders:
“Congratulations to Donald Trump who has defied the odds and the naysayers to become the oldest elected president of the US. This is an extraordinary achievement for a Washington outsider who had to beat 16 others for the Republican nomination, as well as a seasoned politician like Hillary Clinton for the presidency. Meanwhile, commiserations to Hillary for whom the election was hers to lose. And spare a thought for the opinion pollsters whose reputations lie in tatters.”
“Investors must now absorb the reality of a president who has promised to create 25 million jobs and build a wall across the border with Mexico. President Trump’s fiscal policies will cut taxes and spending, but will most likely lead to higher interest rates, inflation and a bigger budget deficit. We would expect Congress to temper the new president’s fiscal plans, while he will have more freedom on trade. Consequently, we are likely to see modest fiscal stimulus and a trade war break out as the president raises tariffs on China and Mexico.”
“The net effect is that after a brief boost from tax cuts, the economy will cool as inflation and interest rates rise. With higher tariffs pushing up prices and wages rising as immigrant labour supply falls, the overall outcome is likely to be stagflation, i.e. weaker growth and higher inflation.”
“It is not clear how the US dollar would behave in this environment. Some see a stronger currency driven by higher yields, but as this will be accompanied by higher inflation such a conclusion is not obvious. In addition, many investors may be deterred by a deterioration in US foreign relations with the rest of the world. The best bet is that safe haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are likely to be in demand and investors are also likely to favour gold.”
Jim Leaviss, Head of Retail Fixed Interest van M&G:
“As expectations of a Trump win grew last night, the US Treasury market rallied aggressively. You might think this perverse given that Trump has openly discussed haircutting Treasury investors, but this is a flight to quality response. The Fed was seen as nailed on for a 25 bps hike in December, but the uncertainty impact of a Trump win makes this much less likely (and will Janet Yellen still be head of the Fed under a Trump regime?).”
“The implied probability of a rate increase has fallen from over 80% to 50%. Rate expectations have fallen for 2017 too. 10 year US Treasury yields plummeted by 14 bps from 1.88% to 1.74% as the election outcome became clearer, but have subsequently risen back to 1.81%. Overall, we have seen a relatively modest 5 bps fall in the US 10yr yield.”
“The big implication for investors of what happened last night is this: with no income growth for most populations in developed world economies since the Great Financial Crisis (with the exception of the 1%), the established parties and candidates are being heavily punished in elections. It doesn’t stop here, we have a referendum on the Italian constitution next month, and many more European elections in 2017 (could Marine Le Pen be elected President in France?).”
“I saw a statistic this morning where across the G7, 65% of parents believe their children will be worse off than they are. Having seen the electoral shifts in the UK with Brexit and now the US, do established political parties react by promising significant fiscal expansions? Could last night’s vote trigger the end of global austerity?”
Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer EMEA & Global Head of Equities van Columbia Threadneedle Investments:
“Global uncertainty to remain as election result signals further rolling back of globalisation themes, with emerging markets likely to see greatest impact. For the US, the Republican sweep in both houses will facilitate Trump’s agenda with a focus on domestic growth, spending and fiscal stimulus.”
“The US public has rejected the establishment and for the first time a businessman with little political experience has won the presidential election. The US markets are not yet open but already we have seen Asian markets fall from the highs of the previous day when Clinton was expected to win. These markets have not however reached the lows of earlier this year.”
“The main immediate impact will be visible in the emerging markets. Indeed we have already seen the Peso fall and the Mexican central bank call an emergency meeting. The last time the Mexican peso experienced such a fall the Mexican central bank intervened and hiked interest rates, so we could see the announcement of a rate increase later today. While the dollar is up against emerging market currencies it has given back much of its past gains against the Euro and Yen.”
“We expect the impact of the result on equity markets to be mixed, with an initial short-term hit as the world adjusts to the perceived increase in geopolitical and economic risk. China will be a particular concern given Trump’s rhetoric regarding trade and tariffs. Europe will remain highly fragile as further elections play out and may continue the anti-globalisation theme.”
“For the US domestic economy, the obvious winners are infrastructure, with a focus on roads, bridges, airports and sectors that would benefit from M&A and industry consolidation, which Trump is particularly enthusiastic about. Financials will benefit from loosening of the Dodd-Frank regulations, while the defence sector is likely to thrive. Other sectors likely to do well include consumer discretionary, consumer staples, telecoms, energy and mining.”
Peter Hensman, Global Strategist for the Real Return team bij Newton Investment Management:
“Contrary to polling expectations, and reminiscent of the UK vote for Brexit, Donald Trump has won the US Presidential election as those feeling left behind by technological change and globalisation registered their discontent and desire for a different approach. Markets reacting with shock to the outcome as the uncertainty around quite what a Trump Presidency stands for reverberates around the world.”
“As the dust settles, the prospect of lower corporate tax rates and reductions in income taxes should be viewed positively and markets will look to understand more about the Trump plans for a significant increase in infrastructure spending. How deliverable these campaign promises are in the light of the breakdown in relations between the new President and his Republican party colleagues will also receive a significant amount of attention.”
“Unsurprisingly, emerging market stocks and currencies have reacted to the election result, as the world faces the prospect of a more insular US leader. More US dollar strength relative to emerging markets seems likely as US capital retrenches from the rest of the world. The uncertainties unleashed by this election outcome are likely to derail the much anticipated US rate increase at the December FOMC meeting.”
“US political uncertainty and the lowered prospects for tighter monetary policy can be expected to undermine the dollar against the other major currencies, the Japanese yen perhaps stands out as the currency most likely to benefit from this flight to quality.”
